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不换思想就换人,土耳其央行行长被炒

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土耳其里拉周一兑美元贬值超过2%,这必将创下今年3月以来的最大贬值。在银行行长Cheitkaya被解雇后,市场担心土耳其央行将在两周后降息。

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上周末,土耳其总统雷杰普塔伊普埃尔多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)做出了取代土耳其中央银行行长的决定,引发了投资者对中央银行独立性的担忧,中央银行一直试图应对不受控制的通胀。自2016年4月以来,Murat Cetinkaya一直在管理土耳其中央银行,并且无视埃尔多安总统的意见,并在去年年底提高了央行的主要政策利率。

他的副手Murat Uysal将取代他的职位,该法令没有给出任何理由。在过去的一段时间里,土耳其中央银行不得不“抵抗”“干涉主义”埃尔多安。埃尔多安总统质疑主流经济理论,并认为通过以更高的利率收紧货币供应,解决通胀过度增长的问题。

去年9月,Cetinkaya将关键政策利率提高至24%似乎已帮助土耳其的通胀增长从去年夏天的25%降至今年6月的15.7%。然而,上个月总统埃尔多安承诺最终的解决方案是迅速降低央行的主要政策利率。这一观点引发了一些人的反对,包括一些埃尔多安的前盟友。有些人认为降息不是很适合现有节点,会对经济造成严重危害。

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Murat Uysal will face a credibility test on July 25 at the earliest, when the central bank will hold the next monetary policy meeting, and the Turkish central bank will decide the interest rate level that day, when the central bank will cut interest rates will receive widespread attention. Some analysts believe that inflation growth in June is the lowest level in a year. This environment may cause the central bank to cut interest rates, but said that any decision to loosen monetary policy will be interpreted as having little to do with economic fundamentals.

In a statement, the central bank said Uysal will continue to maintain the independence of the central bank and stabilize price as its main target. Reducing inflation and stabilizing the lira is especially important for the Turkish economy, as Turkish companies are burdened with more than $200 billion in foreign currency debt, which are difficult to repay in the face of weak domestic currencies.

This year, many central banks have been questioned by the market about the integrity of their policy independence. In addition to Fed Chairman Powell's repeated bombardment of Trump's request to cut interest rates, the decision of the newly nominated ECB president also caused some people in the market to question the independence of the ECB's future monetary policy. Lagarde was a lawyer and had no formal economic education background. She would be the first president of the European Central Bank to have such a resume. She and the Deputy Governor of the European Central Bank, Luis De Guindos, are essentially well-known politicians. Many analysts expect that they will play a more active role in the complex political mechanisms of Europe than the design of monetary policy operations, promote structural reforms in the EU, and perhaps promote the Nordic governments to further relax fiscal policy.

xx然而,拉加德的提名也证实了央行正在逐步摆脱保守估值的模式,即主要由技术官僚和研究学者,并不涉及政治。虽然这样做存在一些争议,但必须强调的是,独立学术技术的官僚并没有预料到2008年的金融危机,而且仍然很难解释为什么经济增长和通货膨胀仍然如此之低。在下一次经济衰退期间,可能需要加强政府与中央银行之间的协调。